KILDARE: Fianna Fáil likely front runners to win new constituency seat

Fianna  Fáil is the likely beneficiary of the decision to give Kildare one more representative in Dáil Éireann following the next general election, due in March 2025.

An extra seat will be added to the Kildare North constituency, which now becomes a five seater.

There are unlikely to be any changes to the line up currently representing the constituency in Dáil, assuming the 78 year old Bernard Durkan runs again.

Dep Durkan remains Fine Gael’s strongest vote getter in the constituency, despite the loss of 700 votes between the 2016 election and last time  out.

James Lawless also saw some slippage, though less pronounced and his running mate Frank O’Rourke narrowly failed to on to FF’s second seat. And while support for Sinn Féin has increased since the last poll it's less likely that Réada Cronin would bring in a second SF TD on the basis of her support.

SF would have won second seats in a number of constituencies around the country had they fielded another runner but the figures from 2020 suggest that wouldn’t have happened in Kildare North.

Dep Cronin is likely to be returned with an increased vote - but SF is less likely to win a second sat than FF.

The same applies to Catherine Murphy, the Social Democrats TD, who topped the poll in 2020.

One of  the big imponderables is how Senator Vincent P Martin will perform. He got a creditable  5,100 first preferences last time, but the transfers didn’t arrive insufficient quantities.

Moreover the most recent opinion poll for Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks has shown  a large drop, from 5% to 2%,  in support for the Green Party.

In Kildare South the changes to the boundary, specifically the loss of his Portarlington base, would spell trouble for the independent.

The loss of Portarlington could mean 2,000 votes lost for Dep Berry. He also got the majority of Fiona McLoughlin-Healy’s vote when the independent was eliminated and there’s no guarantee she will run again

Monasterevin-based Patrician Ryan (SF), who won a barnstorming 10,155 first preferences last time, will also lose out thanks to the boundary changes but to a much lesser degree.

The constituency changes follow recommendations from the Electoral Commission, in the wake of an examination of constituencies, county and constituency boundaries and population growth.

The four new areas added to the enlarged Kildare North constituency are all in the greater Naas area - specifically Donore, Caragh, Ladytown, Two Mile House and Killashee - something which could favour candidates based in the Naas area.

The EC’s report noted that Kildare North has had a population of 134,896, according to the most recent census.

It is also the second fastest growing constituency nationally - rising by 15,248 or 12.8% since 2016.

Meanwhile Kildare South will continue to elect 4 TDs.

It will lose parts of Offaly and Laois as well as the aforementioned areas added to Kildare North.

Kildare South has a current population of 125,979.

This is a rise of 11,169 (0.7%) since 2016 and this increase allowed the transfers to Kildare North, Offaly and Laois while maintaining its status as a four seater.

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In line with maintaining county boundaries as far as possible, the Laois Offaly constituency is to become two separate constituencies representing either county.

Laois Offaly was a five seater and the new Offaly constituency will have three TDs, to reflect the drop in population caused by the splitting of the two.

This will be the first time since the foundation of the State that the Offaly constituency reflects the county boundary.

Wicklow is to become a four seat constituency, which means a loss of one seat.

It will lose swathes of the south of the county, including Rathdrum, Arklow, Tinahely and Canew to a new Wicklow Wexford constituency, which will return three TDs.